Asynchronous Risk: Unemployment, Equity Markets, and Retirement Savings
Upjohn Institute Working Paper 05-114
Jason S. Seligman
Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia
e-mail: seligman@cviog.uga.edu
Jeffrey B. Wenger
School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia
2005
Abstract
The link between unemployment and pension accumulations is conceptually
straightforward; periods of unemployment lead to lower pension contributions, and thus
to lower accumulations. However, impacts on accumulation may differ as a result of the
timing and frequency of unemployment spells. We hypothesize that unemployment is
more likely during periods in which the equities market experiences greater than average
returns, largely due to a lead/lag structure of the stock and labor markets, respectively.
This would imply that workers may systematically miss opportunities to purchase
equities through DC plans when prices are relatively low. To test this hypothesis, we
match historic stock returns to stochastically generated unemployment spells for men and
women across the earnings distribution. We find lower income workers suffer greater
percentage losses in retirement savings as a result of more frequent spells of
unemployment. Higher income worker losses are more greatly affected by the timing of
unemployment relative to the equities market.
Full text | Institute Home Page | Back to Staff Working
Papers
 
 
 
|