by Timothy J. Bartik, Senior Economist, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
January 1999 version
Please also download the figures, chart, and tables which accompany this paper.
The "November 1998" version of this paper, figures and tables is also available.
This paper was prepared for the conference, "Labor Markets and Less Skilled Workers", held November 5-6, 1998 in Washington D.C. The conference was sponsored by the Joint Center for Poverty Research.
Abstract
U.S. welfare reforms will add one to two million persons to the labor force from 1993-2005. Because this increase in labor supply is only about one percent of the U.S. labor force, it is unlikely that welfare reform will have sizable effects on overall U.S. wages or unemployment. However, a variety of economic models suggest that welfare reform will significantly reduce the real earnings of some groups of less-educated women.
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